DFSJohn HyslopNFLSports

Draftkings Week 3 GPP Targets (2020)

Draftkings Week 3 GPP Targets (2020)

Draftkings Week 3 GPP Targets (2020)

I could literally spend all day everyday making NFL DFS lineups. (It’s not weird.) You could argue that it’s more fun making them than it is to watch them get destroyed by 1:15 every Sunday, that’s for sure. But this week is the week. This is the slate that is going to make the NFL season for us. That one week where things just fall the way they need to for my guys bring home the bacon. Sure I’ve said this before (last week, and every other week I have ever played), but this week will be different. The week we get to tell everyone who makes fun of us for our DFS hobby (addiction), to go ahead and suck it. (I assume when you’re rich you can just tell people to suck it whenever you want and they can’t do anything about it.) Pretend I’m Bart Scott for a second, “Can’t wait!”

  • Note, these are all GPP candidates. Some could be played in cash games but for the most part, these are all candidates to hit the illustrious 5x+ value which would put you in contention to take down a large field GPP.

LV Raiders @ NE Patriots

Josh Jacobs – $7300 Draftkings

The only guy remotely playable for me on this team, this week is Jacobs. I don’t like the spot at all for the Raiders who are coming off of an emotional win in front of a national audience then having to travel east on a short week to play a team like the Patriots who are coming off of a close loss. I think the Patriots’ pass defense is still borderline elite despite what Russell Wilson was able to do to them last week so that rules out the WR position (too many mouths to feed at WR in Oakland anyway) as well as the QB. Darren Waller is a guy that everyone is likely to chase after what he did Monday Night, but I think he is just as likely to bust as he is to have a ceiling game. The Patriots have only given up 4 receptions to the TE position so far this season so there is that to think about too. That leaves Jacobs to test the Pats’ run defense and it’s not out of the question that he can produce. Still, he is a dart throw in a GPP at best.

N’Keal Harry – $4200 Draftkings

One of these weeks Harry is going to catch a TD. It’s only been two games but so far he has been targeted three times in the red zone with two of those targets coming from inside the 5 yard line. What’s equally awesome is the fact that he has been targeted 18 times in those two games. If, and that is a big if, this game turns into a track meet (for the record, I don’t think it will), Harry could see a similar workload to the Seattle game (8-72-0 on 12 targets). I have not done any ownership projections yet, but I could not imagine a scenario where it is very high. I am fairly certain I won’t play him in cash games, but he is certainly a live GPP dart. Let’s call him a “last in” type.

 

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Mitch Trubisky – $5700 Draftkings

If you read this article weekly, you knew this was coming. This is about price more than anything (matchup too), because he could come in at less than 30 DK points and still hit value. I know Mitch is not good but Russell Wilson went for 34 DK points in Week 1 against this defense and Dak Prescott went for 43 last week. My point is, the Falcons have been very generous when it comes to the QB position this season. Did you know that only one team has given up more TD passes to opposing QBs (I know it’s only a two game sample size), and no team has given up more rushing TDs to opposing signal callers? If the Falcons offense shows up, which I think they borderline will, then the Bears will be forced into letting Mitch throw the ball. That’s not good for Bears fans or the Bears, but that is good for Mitch’s DFS stock. I am definitely going to have a “Mitch” tournament team this weekend, although it feels more like a lottery ticket.

Hayden Hurst – $4700 Draftkings

I already said I don’t really like this game for DFS purposes. I think it has a good chance of going under. It just has that type of feel to it. But I have rules and one of those rules is, when I make a GPP lineup, I always run my QB back with someone on the other team. It just makes sense. (I usually stack the QB with someone on their own team as well.) Hurst is the guy who makes the most sense to me here. The Bears pass defense has actually been pretty good so far. I know they haven’t played anyone potent yet so there is that but still. One area of concern would be TE coverage as only seven teams have given up more receptions to the TE position this season than the Bears (13). TJ Hockenson (5-56-1) and Evan Engram (6-65) have both put up serviceable numbers against the Bears in the first couple weeks so it’s not crazy to think if Hurst gets into the end zone like he did last season, he could have a ceiling game. Especially if Julio Jones is hurt or limited.

Draftkings Week 3 GPP Targets (2020)

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Philadelphia Eagles

Drew Sample – $3500 Draftkings

This is more of a punt play but he could work out if you want to pay up everywhere else besides TE. Only two teams in the NFL have targeted the TE position more than the Bengals this season (Eagles, Raiders) so we have that working in our favor. With CJ Uzomah done for the year, Sample could have a decent sized workload in front of him. Last week Tyler Higbee scorched this same Eagles secondary for not one, not two but three TDs so there is that working for us. Not that I think Sample is on Higbee’s level but let’s say the Bengals get behind like they did last week, which I think will happen. Joe Burrow will have to sling the ball again and he likes throwing it to the TE. It’s that simple. Now I know that Sample will need to score a TD to fly over his value, but just know that he leads this team in red zone targets so far this season (4). (I know it’s only been two games.) A lot of guys will say they are going to play him this week but will then chicken out before lock so I don’t think his ownership will be very high.

Miles Sanders – $6400 Draftkings

Miles Sanders is locked and loaded in every lineup I have this week. He said his conditioning was “an issue” but that didn’t look like the case to me. He looked like a greased lion made out of 100% pure testosterone to me. This week he gets the Bengals and there is no team in the NFL that has given up more yards to the RB position than they have. Only one team (Panthers) have given up more rushing TDs to RBs so if there was ever a week to play Sanders, it’s this week. Let’s not forget that the Eagles are 0-2. They’re hungry, they’re desperate and I love betting on hungry, desperate teams. I think Sanders has a big day against a team that couldn’t do anything to stop the run in the first two weeks of the season.

 

SF 49ers @ NY Giants

Fade – $0 Draftkings

I never do this, and I actually hate doing this, but there is not one guy on this team that I have any interest in. (Even if George Kittle plays.) There’s talk of Jeff Wilson getting work but the new bottom price for RBs on Draftkings is $4000 so I’m out on him. Everyone else is pretty hurt so finding guys to start is pretty much like picking a name out of a hat. Where in the hell is the ball going to go? Let your enemies take shots on the 49ers skill positions, there are 12 other games to target this week and not one of those other games has a total of 41.

Giants Defense – $2700 Draftkings

This sounds so stupid when you say this out loud so don’t do that, but I think the Giants actually have a shot of winning this game. Not saying they will win, but saying they could cover and if they do, it will be because they held the 49ers offense. I honestly don’t think the 49ers will play Kittle because of turf concerns (I know what that sounds like) and if that happens, how do the Niners score? I’ve said it once and I will say it again, the Giants’ defense is not that bad. At $2700, they offer salary relief as well as a legit chance of hitting value. They just put up 9 points against the Bears last week and not to insult the 49ers, but their offense is not as good as the Bears’ is at the moment. Even if we don’t get lucky with a turnover for a TD or some type of kick return TD, we could still walk away with another 9 burger this week because of boringness. I’ll take it.

 

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Jordan Akins – $3400 Draftkings

I know the Steelers have not really played anyone yet in terms of offensive powerhouses, but they have been damn good against the two teams they have played. I get that the Broncos scored 21 points against them but they were held to 3 at halftime. The week before that, they manhandled the Giants making every player on that team useless in fantasy. With that being said, they do have one dirty little secret and that is the fact that no safety in the NFL has given up more receiving yards in coverage than Terrell Edmunds. I have him at 134 in two games which is good news for Akins. Edmunds should get Akins on some of his routes as well as Devin Bush who gives it up too. Akins has played 80+% of the snaps in each of the first two games this season and has run 32+ routes per game so he will be involved especially if this thing starts to go south for the Texans. Now if Will Fuller misses this one, forget about it, Akins could end up having a big game and at $3400, he only needs 20 points to hit 5x value.

Diontae Johnson – $5400 Draftkings

Johnson came through for everyone that played him last week at $4500 so much so that I think the price hike ($900) is actually a good thing if you want to play him again. Guys (and girls) are going to get sticker shock when they see his price this week even though I think he can still smash value at this number. Only one WR (Hopkins) in the NFL has been targeted more than Johnson through the first two games and the Steelers have not even seen a negative game script yet. What if Houston is able to jump out into a lead in this one? That’s not an outlandish thing to think will happen and if the Steelers are chasing points, Johnson at the elevated price of $5400 would still be a bargain.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings

Corey Davis – $5200 Draftkings

Obviously this is contingent on AJ Brown being out but if he is, Davis could be fired up in GPPs. For one, he just borderline burned a lot of people last week with a 3 catch day that only a TD was able to partially save. But that was against Jacksonville, who so far this season has only allowed 262 yards to opposing WRs which is not bad (only three teams have given up less). This week, they visit the team that has given up the 5th most receiving yards to the WR position. The total on this game has gone from 45 to 49.5 which is the third highest on the slate. If the bettors are right and this does become a shootout, I wouldn’t mind having Davis at depressed ownership in GPPs.

Kirk Cousins – $5500 Draftkings

It’s bounce back time for Captain Kirk. Here’s what I think, nobody is going to play Cousins. He was awful last week. Like really awful. He completed 11 passes the whole game. He barely broke 100 yards and on top of that, he threw three picks. Here’s the thing, that was against the Colts. No team in the NFL has given up less yards passing to opposing QBs than they have and it’s not even close. (286, next closest team 409 and that team has played the Jets) Now the Titans are not exactly giving it up but they damn sure aren’t shutting it down either. Given the situation with the total, we could have a baby shootout here and I can’t imagine a scenario where the Titans don’t force the Vikings into borderline abandoning the run and throwing the ball. If that happens, Cousins is at home and likely highly motivated after stinking up the place last week. At $5500, he doesn’t need to set any records to hit value.

Draftkings Week 3 GPP Targets (2020)

 

Washington Football Team @ Cleveland Browns

Terry McLaurin – $5900 Draftkings

I hate this team’s offense so much that I hate targeting this guy even though I think he is an absolute beast. Yards per route run is a nice metric for the WR position and right now there are not many better than him in this metric (7). He has a nice situation in front of him because the game script should favor him but he could get some love early in the game as well. I highly doubt Washington will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Browns as only two teams in the NFL have given up less rushing yards to opposing RBs. It will only be a matter of time before Dwayne Haskins has to take to the air and our boy Terry will be waiting. He’s a nice piece to toss in after you have constructed your stacks.

Nick Chubb – $6900 Draftkings

It feels weird to say this but I think Washington’s defense might actually be good. With that being said, it’s not crazy to think that Chubb could carry the ball 20+ times in this game in the most likely game script. So far this season, the Browns have been able to run the ball effectively against the Ravens and Bengals. The Ravens game got away from them so the run was abandoned but Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb combined to carry the ball 23 times for 132 yards. That’s not bad. Washington’s defense has only allowed 145 yards on the ground so far this season (0 TDs) so that’s a red flag but that also means people will get scared off of Chubb. If you are trying to pivot off of Jonathan Taylor or James Conner, Chubb might be your man.

 

LA Rams @ Buffalo Bills

Darrell Henderson – $5400 Draftkings

I don’t like targeting guys against the Bills but Henderson might be a sneaky way to get exposure to a game with a 47.5 (and rising) total. How much do we really know about the Bills’ defense given they have only played the Jets and Dolphins so far? I do know that they have only given up 133 yards to opposing RBs in those games versus bottom feeders but the Rams have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. With Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown both questionable for this game, Henderson could a lot of action and I’m not totally convinced that he would be a popular target in DFS. To me, he is worth the flyer in GPPs.

Josh Allen – $6900 Draftkings

My first thought was to fade Josh Allen and the Bills all together as the Rams are one of only two teams (Bears) that have only given up one passing TD so far this season which is pretty impressive. I stopped there though. This is Josh Allen we are talking about here. The Bills haven’t had to chase points yet this season given who they have played (Jets & Dolphins) so there is that. I also think Allen’s legs are matchup proof so we at least have that working for us if they don’t chase. Either way, this is the second trip east for the Rams in as many weeks which is never a good thing. They were impressive in Dallas against Dak and company but Dak still put up 17 without really testing this defense down the field. If you want to get away from playing Wilson and Prescott this weekend, look for Allen at sure to be depressed ownership.

Draftkings Week 3 GPP Targets (2020)

 

Carolina Panthers @ LA Chargers

Curtis Samuel – $4000 Draftkings

Let’s say you are scrapping the bottom of the barrel and you need a cheap, low owned option for the last spot in your GPP lineup, take a look at this guy. You have to be desperate though, like crackhead desperate. But fortune favors the bold and although this one is bold, it could actually pay off. Here is what I think I know (not much). The Panthers are going to get beat Sunday in LA. They are going to be chasing points early and they are going to have a hard time throwing on this team. They generally only throw to their WRs but there are only a handful of teams that have held opposing WRs to fewer receiving yards. (Keep in mind they did just play the Chiefs.) Without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers will possibly look for a spark from Samuel out of the backfield or in the flats. Only six teams in the NFL have given up more receptions to opposing RBs and Mike Davis is way too expensive so that leaves up with Samuel. Better say your prayers before this one though.

Joshua Kelley – $5000 Draftkings

If you aren’t playing Kelley this week, I don’t know what to tell you. I have him down for 20+ carries and a possible 2+ score game. No team has given up more receptions to opposing RBs than Carolina and only five teams have given up more rushing yards. The game plan will surely be to run the ball until the wheels fall off but that isn’t even the best part. We’re greedy, greedy people and we don’t just stop at carries and yards. We want money touches damn it! Say no more fam, Kelley has us covered. Only eight RBs in the NFL have seen more carries in the red zone and we should expect the Chargers to end up there quite a few times this Sunday. This will be a coming out party and we are all invited. All you have to do is show up.

 

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

Jets Defense – $2000 Draftkings

You would have to be high as a kite to play any of the Jets’ offensive players this week and that is not hyperbole. Adam Gase is challenging Hue Jackson for worst coach of all time and some would say he has already surpassed him. The offense is a mess and seriously, you have to wonder what they do at practice and further, is this even real? One bright spot (well, not totally awful spot) has been their defense in DFS. They are minimum priced so what that means is they only have to get 10 points to hit 5x value. The decision ultimately boils down to whether or not you want to squeeze in another stud. If you do, paying the absolute minimum for this defense against a team that wants to run the ball may be a good idea. (Even though it seems insane at first glance.)

Nyheim Hines – $4800 Draftkings

This is a GPP dart that could ultimately make you hate DFS. Game script will likely dictate usage for Hines this season as it did last week. The Colts were content with running Jonathan Taylor between the tackles all day and then Jordan Wilkins. The good news for anyone who thought they were getting leverage on the field with Hines is, I don’t think they will try the same thing on the Jets this week. Take away Raheem Mostert’s 80 yard TD run last week (I know you can’t do that, but go with me here), and the Jets have only given up 145 yards rushing this season. That’s not bad for a team that is behind from kickoff on. The way to attack their defense is on the edges and with short passes to the RBs. Only five teams have given up more receptions to opposing RBs this season so that should bode well for Hines. Plus, nobody is going to play him after last week.

 

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

TJ Hockenson – $5300 Draftkings

There are so many good options at TE this week that many guys (and girls) are going to flat out overlook our boy TJ and that could prove to be fatal. He’s right in between Noah Fant and Jonnu Smith in terms of price so I get why people will ignore him, but this matchup isn’t that bad because he has a clear path to points. Let’s say Kyler Murray starts doing Kyler Murray things. That’s not hard to imagine. The Lions go down a couple scores and have to claw their way back in through the air. Even if Golladay comes back this week, they don’t have a plus matchup at the WR position. Only one team (Colts) has given up less receiving yards to the WR position so I’m not just talking out my arse here. Hockenson would need more targets but it’s not crazy to think he could go for a 7-100-1 line in a beatdown. Not bad for a guy coming in at less than 1% ownership.

Deandre Hopkins – $7900 Draftkings

I will definitely have some Kyler Murray teams, there’s no doubt about that since only one team has given up more TD passes to opposing QBs than the Lions (Browns). They gave up three to Mitch. Enough said. But I think Deandre Hopkins is going to embarrass¬†Amani Oruwariye on Sunday. Oruwariye got lucky Davante Adams left early last week because that was going to get ugly in a hurry. Hopkins has been the most targeted WR in the NFL through three weeks and I would expect that to continue this Sunday. He has multiple TD upside but his ownership will be sky high. Still, sometimes you have to eat the chalk.

Draftkings Week 3 GPP Targets (2020)

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks

Amari Cooper – $6500 Draftkings

Give me all the Amari Cooper you can give me this week. He lines up on the right about half the time and who plays left corner for the Seahawks? Shaquill Griffin. The same Shaquill Griffen that has given up more receiving yards than any other player in the NFL. That one. I know what you are thinking, John, what about when Coop lines up on the left? That is a fantastic question! When he does that, he will be looking at Quinton Dunbar. The same Quinton Dunbar that has given up the second most receiving yards in the NFL. In fact as a team, the Seahawks have given up over 200 more receiving yards than the closest team to them. This game features the second highest total on the slate at the time of this post so you need some exposure to it. Cooper is in line for a big one.

Tyler Lockett – $6400 Draftkings

Lockett is going to be chalky but this kind of chalk is good for you. If you eat this type of chalk (and workout) you will get jacked. Guaranteed! He is going to see a ton of Jourdan Lewis and honestly, Lewis can’t hang with Lockett. As a team, the Cowboys have given up 382 yards receiving to opposing WRs so it really doesn’t matter who covers Lockett, they will get smoked. You could make the same argument for Metcalf too. I don’t think the lines makers can set this total high enough and I do think having a ton of exposure to this game (QB-WR-WR) will be the way to play it. You can always differentiate somewhere else so there is no need to worry about high ownership when it comes to this game.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos

OJ Howard – $3500 Draftkings

I don’t love the Tampa Bay skill players since I think the RBs (Jones & Fournette) will cannibalize each other as well as the WRs. The Tampa defense is actually good and with Driskel user center, the offense may not be asked to do much. The strategy behind the OJ Howard play is that he may be able to get into the end zone against this Broncos team as they gave up two TDs to the Titans’ TEs in Week 1. I couldn’t imagine a huge game for Howard but of all the Tampa players we have to choose from, he is the one I would say has the best chance of hitting value.

KJ Hamler – $3000 Draftkings

I think the Buccaneer defense is actually good this season so going after them is not something I will try often but Hamler makes sense. Last year, the Buccaneers run defense was something to worry about and it still is. Only three teams have given up less rushing yards to opposing running backs and keep in mind, Tampa played Alvin Kamara. I think sooner than later, this team will turn into a pass funnel and at the bare minimum price for WRs, Hamler could be a guy who soaks up targets. I expect the Broncos to get behind and after Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant,¬†the options are limited in terms of pass catchers. Hamler tied for the team lead in targets last week so here’s to hoping that is a sign of things to come. I don’t view this as punting the position.

Draftkings Week 3 GPP Targets (2020)

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