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Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

I think I have figured this whole DFS stuff out and it starts with realizing stats are stupid because they are. It’s that simple and I will explain that concept in greater detail in this week’s podcast so you won’t want to miss that. (Subscribe now so you don’t miss it Apple, Stitcher. I’ll give you a sec to do it before we continue.)

Basically, stats are how everyone else ends up on the same guy as you. Case in point, Miles Sanders last week (89.3% in one cash game). Sure there are some guys that are going to be chalky but my God. That may be business as usual in cash games, but if you are a big cash hunter and want to take down a GPP, you have to dig a little deeper. You have to get a little dirty, maybe even break some rules (just spitballing here). Point is, the guys you play can’t be in everyone else’s lineup. That’s dumb, you know that, I know that, we’re past that. Here is a stat free (except when I use stats) list of GPP targets for the Week 4 Main Slate.

 

NO Saints @ Detroit Lions

Alvin Kamara – $8000 Draftkings

Alright, so everybody saw the last two Saints’ games but it’s pretty clear they want to throw the ball to Kamara. Stats are stupid, but if you are looking for validation on this play, look at the the targets so far this season (8,9,14). It’s not just when they are losing, he got 8 in Week 1 when they were winning and Michael Thomas was on the field. The only reason he didn’t score more points Week 1 (23.7) is because the Buccaneers actually have a pretty stupid good run defense. This isn’t a stats play though, this is called logic. Drew Brees simply can’t throw the ball downfield anymore, Michael Thomas probably won’t be 100% and Detroit is fat and happy after a road win last week. If you want stats, even though they are stupid, only eight teams have given up more DK points per game to the RB position this season than the Lions. Play the man. There is a zero percent chance he disappoints this weekend.

TJ Hockenson – $4800 Draftkings

I was going to over think this and write Jesse James here but I chickened out. Sure you could point to the fact that no team has given up more receptions, yards or TDs to the TE position than the Saints, as a reason that everyone will be on Hockenson but I am not sure they will. He feels like a guy everybody is going to put in their lineups early in the week and then switch out when they get hammered Saturday Night. (Don’t act like that doesn’t happen.) Guys (and girls) are going to talk themselves out of TJ because Golladay is fully back now but last week Hockenson got 7 targets. That’s plenty and you can make the case that the Lions could be playing from behind in this one so he could get just as much love this week. His price dropped $500 from last week which is fine by me. No chance our boy TJ disappoints this week.

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears

Reece Fountain – $3000 Draftkings

“Who in the hell is Reece Fountain,” you ask?. He’s good and he has a path to production in the wake of the injuries to Paris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr. Stats won’t put you on this guy but your eyeballs mixed with a touch of common sense should do the trick. No doubt we will need a little game script magic for this one to pay off, but the Bears are starting BD Nick this week so there is that. The lines makers opened this on up at a pick with a total of 54 so let’s not act like this environment can’t produce a scenario where the Colts need to throw the ball for extended stretches. If that happens, Fountain is a good bet to be on the field since he was getting snaps when Pittman was healthy. He got his first NFL reception last week so the natural progression from there is his first NFL TD right? Don’t let the fact that the Bears have not given up a TD to a WR this season. I think there is a zero percent chance anybody but you benefits if he does something like 4-51-1 this week.

Anthony Miller – $4900 Draftkings

Nobody in their right mind would play a WR because the stats say it’s a bad idea (stats are stupid). Something happened to Anthony Miller last week when BD Nick came into the game and it’s called hope for the future. That happens naturally when you no longer have Mitch Trubisky (RIP) throwing ducks ten feet over your head. Instead, he is the cheapest he has been all season ($700 less than last week), at home, playing for a team with hope. Sure this game is against the NFL’s best pass defense but he has the most beatable matchup on the board with Kenny Moore chasing him all day. There is absolutely no chance anybody else will be on this guy in DFS and he could easily have the most upside of any receiver on the Bears’ roster this week. (Notice I said upside because we all know Allen Robinson is king in Chicago) We just need a little game script love.

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

 

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Kyler Murray – $7000 Draftkings

A lot of Murray’s value is tied up in running the football but the stats say that might not happen this week. Only three teams (Cardinals, Broncos, Vikings) have given up less rushing yards to opposing signal callers this season so this is a bad spot right? Wrong. Stats are stupid. The Panthers played Derek Carr, Tom Brady and Justin Herbert so far this season so it’s pretty easy to see why they have only given up 14 yards to the position. The Cardinals are coming off of a mistake filled loss to the Lions so even though they are coming east, I think they come in hot. The Panthers on the other hand are fat and happy after beating a fake Chargers squad. There are five guys more expensive than Murray this week and guys will talk themselves into Kenyan Drake since word on the street is the Panthers are a “play an RB against them” team. That should keep ownership at a reasonable level which means there is a zero percent chance you will be rooting for the chalk QB all day.

Robby Anderson – $5400 Draftkings

People are going to miss this one because they think Patrick Peterson is still good. I’m whispering, “he’s not.” Here’s the thing, Anderson lines up everywhere so even if you don’t think Peterson is good, he will still see Dre Kirkpatrick at times who we can all agree is not good. It doesn’t take much of an imagination to dream up a game script where Anderson feasts as the Panthers could play from behind easily. The stats say we should avoid WRs against the Cardinals being that only three teams in the NFL have given up less receiving yards to the position but stats are stupid. The Cardinals have played the 49ers, Redskins and Lions so far which explains the lack of WR production. If you are watching this at a bar, there is a 100% chance you will be the only one going nuts when Anderson rips off 15+ points in garbage time to help your GPP lineup.

 

Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Football Team

Miles Boykin – $4000 Draftkings

I could see the “pissed off Lamar” narrative peaking in this week and that plays into our hands a little. Let’s say you truly believe that Lamar is going to come out and smash the Washington team, you still can’t really play him at his $8100 salary because he’d get yanked in the 4th quarter, right? Also consider the fact that they are on a short week and he hasn’t even topped 30 DK points this season. I’m not saying your are dumb to play Lamar, I am really saying you are dumb to play any Ravens. There’s a zero percent chance I will play any Ravens this week because it’s dumb, but if you want to, have at it. If I was going to do something dumb like play a Raven in GPPs, it would be the cheapest WR that is on the field for the most time. Maybe we get lucky and he breaks a long one. I still think it’s dumb. If you don’t want to play any offensive guys, then you could always go after their D but you have to pay $4K for it.

Terry McLaurin – $5800 Draftkings

McLaurin lines up on the left so he should get a lot of Jimmy Smith this week and that’s good for Terry. I hate to pick on Jimmy because I love that song by Eminem where he’s like “I’m a switch hitter, bitch, Jimmy Smith ain’t a quitter.” (I don’t even know what that means, but it was awesome.) But this is not about sweet rap lyrics, this is about money and McLaurin had some cash stolen from him by Dontrelle Inman last week. Dwayne Haskins could have easily gone to McLaurin on two separate occasions for TDs but he chose Inman instead. You hate to see it. This week we should get a similar game script which means more garbage time for McLaurin against a secondary that blows. If he scores a TD (or two), we smash value. There is a 100% chance that McLaurin will get overlooked by the field this week and that’s a damn shame.

 

LA Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Keenan Allen – $6500 Draftkings

Here’s what I can tell you for sure, the Chargers are going to get slaughtered this weekend. They are doing what old people do, they go to Tampa to die. It is what it is. But that doesn’t mean we can’t play one of these dudes in DFS. It should be easy to narrow down because if you have watched Tampa play this season, you know you can just scratch the RBs. The Buccaneers are a pass funnel until further notice. That really leaves Allen and Hunter Henry as the only viable options and I plan on avoiding Henry because of Levante David. Justin Herbert only had eyes for Allen last week and this should be the same type of game, an ass whipping. Even if it’s not, they won’t be in a spot to just sit on the ball so there is that. Any way you slice it, there is a zero percent chance Herbert throws less than 40 passes unless he gets hurt. He could easily just throw it to Allen 20 times again because no matter who covers Allen, he can separate.

Mike Evans – $6400 Draftkings

A lot of guys are going to try to make Scotty Miller a thing again since Chris Godwin is out, but his ownership will probably be a little too high for my taste. The Chargers’s secondary has been ravaged by injury so there is a path to points for Miller but I’m sticking with Evans. Last time Godwin was out, Evans was targeted 10 times so I’m using that as a baseline. Will he get 10 again? I don’t know but if that were to happen, he could come close to a 30 burger. The Chargers are one of two teams that haven’t allowed a rushing TD to a RB yet this season so we could even get a couple free looks at TDs from inside the 5 yard line for Evans. He already has 3 TDs on 3 targets from inside the 5 this season so it would be business as usual for him. There is a zero percent chance I am playing any other pass catcher from the Buccaneers than Evans this week.

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins

Tyler Lockett – $7000 Draftkings

A lot of people are going to have a problem paying $7K for Lockett but that’s what stud WRs cost these days. I highly doubt the Seahawks roll into South Beach thinking they are just going to run Carlos Hyde all over these Dolphins. I don’t think Chris Carson has a chance in hell of playing this week (Whoever wants to take out Trysten Hill’s knees should be able to without impunity after what he did to Carson) and once he is announced out, the masses will flock to a RB they think is playing against a bad defense (Miami is not that bad against the run, feels weird to say that). Problem is, $5300 is way too much for Hyde and what happens when the Dolphins start scoring on that Seattle defense? Russell Wilson will start doing what MVP QBs do and that is slinging the ball all over the place. The Dolphins couldn’t cover Stefon Diggs (8-153-1) or John Brown (4-82-1) in Week 2 and both of those guys profile similar to Lockett. There is a zero percent chance Lockett does anything less than 25 DK points this week and he fits in so sweet with the midrange build. Lock him in.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – $5400 Draftkings

Buddy, I know you don’t want Fitzmagic headlining your GPP team but sometimes in life, you have to take a stand. And if you think a lot of guys are playing him because Seattle is historically bad against the pass, you’re wrong. Sure he will have more ownership than normal but I don’t think he’s chalk. Half of the people that are building lineups with him in them right now will take him out and go a safer route before lock. People are too careful these days and careful is not how you take down a large field GPP. You have to be willing to fight and die to take one of those down. Okay, that may have been a little strong, but you gotta be bold and even against a historically bad defense, Fitz is still bold in my eyes. I give a zero percent chance that he goes under 300 yards and 2+ TDs. He may even run for a TD or two. I’m locking him in and seeing what happens.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

James Robinson – $6500 Draftkings

I don’t like targeting guys against the Bills but Henderson might be a sneaky way to get exposure to a game with a 47.5 (and rising) total. How much do we really know about the Bills’ defense given they have only played the Jets and Dolphins so far? I do know that they have only given up 133 yards to opposing RBs in those games versus bottom feeders but the Rams have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. With Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown both questionable for this game, Henderson could a lot of action and I’m not totally convinced that he would be a popular target in DFS. To me, he is worth the flyer in GPPs.

AJ Green – $5500 Draftkings

I wanted to trot out Joe Mixon here so bad but I stayed disciplined. I stayed true to the game because here’s what I don’t do in DFS against the Jaguars, attack them with an RB. I don’t think their run defense is elite, but I do think it’s good enough to not allow a ceiling game to Joe Mixon even at $5800. I do think their pass D sucks and which causes WRs and TEs to steal all the yards from the RBs. It’s a dirty game with these cats. I like Tyler Boyd better than Green in cash because he should neuter DJ Hayden out of the slot but for GPPs, Green is my guy this week. The Jags should be able to score a little in this one since they have had time to lick their wounds from the beating handed down by the Dolphins and hopefully will get DJ Chark back. If the Bengals are forced to sell out on the run and let Joe Burrow sling it everywhere, Green could dominate Tre Herndon at a lower cost and low ownership. There is a zero percent chance I will be playing any WR in this game over AJ Green in GPPs.

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

 

Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys

Jarvis Landry – $5100 Draftkings

If this game starts to get away from the Browns, Juice will be in line for a big one and nobody is going to play him. The Cowboys had an impossible time last week with slot man, Tyler Lockett, so I’m not sure they will be up for Jarvis Landry either. Especially when you consider that the focus will be on stopping Odell Beckham Jr. How could it not be? This game has shootout potential if the Cowboys can handle Nick Chubb which I think they will be able to do within reason. If the game script turns into the Browns chasing points (it could), I wouldn’t mind having Landry in GPPs at his cost and surpassed ownership. The stat guys will be on OBJ since they know that no team in the NFL has given up more receiving TDs to the WR position than the Cowboys (don’t forget stats are stupid). Those dudes will also be salivating because only the Seahawks have given up more DK points per game to opposing WR than Dallas. Jarvis is in a sneaky spot to drop a big one while nobody is rostering him.

FADE Ezekiel Elliott – $7800 Draftkings

I don’t know who I would play on this team in this spot but I do know I would not play Elliott at this price. Look, I know he’s a beast and all that but the Browns’ run defense is not that bad. I would almost consider it a baby pass funnel at this point because their pass defense is suspect. Very suspect. Go look at everyone they played this year, they handled the RBs. I didn’t make that up. What they don’t handle is the WR position. The only issue is the fact that they are four deep at the position since they invited Cedric Wilson to the party last week. I am not sure how to differentiate between any of them because they all ball and they all get snaps (except Wilson, he just gets TDs). You are just going to sprinkle Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb in some GPPs and hope you pick the right one. One thing I do know is I will have zero exposure to Elliott this week in GPPs or Cash. He’s not even a maybe.

 

Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans

Kirk Cousins – $5600 Draftkings

I said to play Captain Kirk last week and all he did was was throw 3 TDs in route to a 21 point week at $5500. I don’t like Cousins, I actually think he is not good but this is a decent spot for him. His defense sucks and the Texans are going to be out for blood after starting 0-3 so you know they’re giving up points. That puts Mike Zimmer in a spot he hates which is having to throw the ball. Do I like playing Cousins? No, God no but here we are. He has been losing a couple points for INTs since he throws a minimum of one per week but the Texans are one of three teams (Cardinals, Eagles) that haven’t picked off a pass thrown by a QB yet this season. That’s not a stat, that’s just a fact. If you have eyeballs and a pinch of common sense, you can see that Cousins might not be that bad of a play and he will probably be less than 1% rostered. Toss a couple Texans’ WRs in there and now it’s a party. There is a 100% chance I throw Cousins into a couple lineups this weekend.

David Johnson – $5600 Draftkings

Here is your free square this week. Play him in cash, play him in GPPs, play him on Madden. This is the game that all the DJ truthers are going to be crowing about on Twitter. The only speed bump I see is the fact that the Vikings’ pass defense is so bad, the Texans WRs will steal all of DJ’s stats. That is a concern but I’m still going in. We may see Duke Johnson again this Sunday which would no doubt suck but I’m still in. The Texans have only had two carries from inside the five this season which is crazy but the good DJ got one of them (Watson got the other) so that should change at some point. Hopefully this week. At $5600, David Johnson is priced to move and for the love of God if the Texans play with a lead, he will hit value easily. There is a zero percent chance he goes under 100 yards (The last two RBs the Vikings played surpassed the century mark) if the Texans play with a lead and ultimately win this game.

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

 

NY Giants @ LA Rams

Evan Engram – $4400 Draftkings

This is a little thing I like to call a “shot in the dark.” It is truly the definition. This isn’t a stat, it’s a fact, the Rams have already given up three TDs to opposing TEs so far this season. They seem to cover the WRs and RBs well, but not so much on the TE. We already know the Giants’ line can’t block so the run game is out for them. Daniel Jones has been awful so playing him would not be wise as he offers zero upside to go along with a basement level floor. Even Engram is literally the only offensive player left standing but he is priced like a scrub. He has a path to production if the Rams jump out and take a lead. You have to think they will after what happened in Buffalo last week so there is hope there. He is clearly a GPP dart throw but one that has a chance of hitting. I’ll have a couple Engram lineups milling around on Sunday.

Cooper Kupp – $6700 Draftkings

This is not a priority but it could end up working. Playing Kupp in a game that projects to be a blowout seems like a bad idea on the surface but when you think about the fact that he will be chased around all afternoon by Darnay Holmes, maybe there’s some meat on that bone. He has yet to get really roasted this season and this might not be the spot for it to happen but it has to happen at some point. I don’t even think the Giants can keep this one close so it will have to happen in the first half but would it really be that crazy if Kupp went for 100+ and 2 TDs in the first half? There is a 100% chance people are actively looking to avoid the Rams’ pass game because of the beatdown potential so you are getting a break in ownership there. I will have a little exposure to Kupp this weekend.

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

 

Buffalo Bills @ LV Raiders

Josh Allen – $7300 Draftkings

Until further notice, I am never not going to have at least one Josh Allen lineup again. He is too much for eleven defenders to handle and he proves it every week. He has yet to score under 33 points this season and if you didn’t get him in season long, the only way to ride this wave is in DFS. The kid is filthy, the analyst were wrong, he is the best story in the NFL this season outside of Russell Wilson. I do think the Raiders will be in better shape going into this week than last given the situation last week. Coming off an emotional win then having to head east to play the Pats is no bueno. Still, I don’t need stats to tell me they don’t stop the run and, in fact, they may be the worst run defense in the NFL. I give them exactly zero chance to stop Allen from doing whatever he wants once it becomes apparent they can’t stop the run. The best part is, he is priced right in between Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott so his ownership should be depressed a little. This one is easy.

Nelson Agholor – $3500 Draftkings

It’s hard to hit the submit button on a Nelson Agholor lineup but here we are. He fits into lineups when you want to squeeze and extra stud in and he plays the position I like to pay down for the most. He’s just a good fit as he should see his fair share of snaps after Bryan Edwards went down last week. The Raiders will already be without Henry Ruggs III so they are suddenly thin at the WR position. The hope here is that I am right about Josh Allen smashing and the Bills playing with a two score lead. That’s plausible. If that happens, Agholor could easily see the kind of action he needs to hit value. He has run almost 40% of his snaps from the slot and when he does that this week, Taron Johnson. No player in the NFL has given up more yardage in slot coverage this season than Johnson as he’s a slot WRs wet dream. There is a 100% chance I have exposure to Agholor in GPPs this week.

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

 

NE Patriots @ KC Chiefs

Damiere Bryd – $3000 Draftkings

I’m not giving the Pats credit for the win last week given that they played a team still drunk from the week before. We can’t just give out credit like that. If they beat or hang with this Chiefs team, then we can talk. I am still debating how to play this one but the front runner is Byrd at the rock bottom minimum price. Running on the Chiefs is the smart way to play it but the Pats have five RBs that could take snaps this week with James White and Damien Harris joining the mix. That’s an easy pass for a rational DFS player. With Bryd, the hope is that the Patriots chase points which is highly likely. He’s on the field almost 90% of the time and the last time the Pats chased points he went 6-72. If he did something similar, I’m happy but if he scores a TD, he smashes. He’s worth a dice roll if you are looking to squeeze in studs.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – $6400 Draftkings

The Chiefs just have too many guys so it’s tough to tell where to go each week but I am going with the Fresh Prince in this one. The last time he saw a run defense this soft was opening night against the Texans and he was a star that night. This seems like a spot where Bill Belichick will try to take away Tyreek Hill with a corner and a safety. That leaves Stephon Gilmore on Sammy Watkins and Adrian Phillips on Travis Kelce although it won’t be that simple because there’s not a chance in hell they just leave Phillips on Kelce alone. The point to all this rambling is that I would be willing to bet the Pats give up the small stuff to CEH in an effort to not get beat for big plays. This is all just a guess but it sounds good to me. Josh Jacobs looked nice against them last week but game script caught up with him. I am not so sure the same will happen to CEH.

Draftkings Week 4 GPP Targets (2020)

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