John HyslopNFLSports

John Hyslop’s Week 9 NFL Betting Notes

Houston Texans (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) – London

Line: Open – Hou -3 O/U – 47 – Current – Hou -1.5 O/U – 46.5

Weather – 54 degrees, 11 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Clete Blakeman (14.7 flags per game, crew let’s them play)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Hou – 3 / Jax – 4
  • Rushing – Hou – 3 / Jax – 2
  • Run Blocking – Hou – 3 / Jax – 1
  • Pass Blocking – Hou – 2 / Jax – 3
  • Run Defense – Hou – 4 / Jax – 1
  • Pass Defense – Hou – 2 / Jax – 4

Player Prop Considerations – I want to see the Leonard Fournette to score a rushing touchdown prop the most. If I can get a +120 or better number, I will most likely take it and run. The Texans have only given up two rushing touchdowns all season which should give us a good number but without JJ Watt, I think that number will balloon like it has in years past. Watt is not known for his run defense as much as he is for his quarterback pressures but he is an animal in all areas. The Texans are currently giving up 4.1 yards a carry and that number should increase in Watt’s absence, making a play on Fournette’s rushing yard total a viable option.

Betting Angles – If you like the Jaguars, you are in very good company because so do the “sharps”. Early in the week, after only taking in 38% of the early wagers, they went from +3 to +1.5 which is a good indication that the “smart guys” like them. I can get behind this too because besides the Texans run defense being weakened by the Watt injury, the pass game should feel some effects as well. Only one team has given up more passing yards to the quarterback position this season than the Texans (Cardinals) so missing a key pass rusher will not help matters.

If you like the Texans, you can rest easy knowing that the Texans have averaged 33.5 points per game in their last four contests. If their defense can’t stop the Jaguars, their offense should be able to keep them in the game. The Jaguars held Watson in check in Week 2 when these two teams met but that was when Jalen Ramsey was patrolling the secondary for the Jags. In a game that could be near a pick’em at kickoff, you have to like having Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins going against a defense that has only seen Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton and Sam Darnold in last six games.


 

Washington Redskins (1-7) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)

Line: Open – Buf -10 O/U – 36.5 – Current – Buf -9.5 O/U – 37

Weather – 41 degrees, 17 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Tony Corrente (17.4 flags per game, amount the league leaders in holding and PI calls)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Wash – 1 / Buf – 1
  • Rushing – Wash – 1 / Buf – 4
  • Run Blocking – Wash – 3 / Buf – 4
  • Pass Blocking – Wash – 2 / Buf – 1
  • Run Defense – Wash – 2 / Buf – 1
  • Pass Defense – Wash – 2 / Buf – 4

Player Prop Considerations – A great place to start in the prop play pool would be the Dwayne Haskins passing yards under (assuming Case Keenum does not play). I doubt we will see a number much higher than 200 but I would be shocked to see him actually throw for say, 225+ yards. Only two teams have allowed less passing yards to quarterbacks than the Bills and after what I have seen out of Haskins, I doubt he will be the guy to dice them up. The Eagles just hung a 30 burger on the Bills last Sunday and do you know how many passing yards Carson Wentz had? 172. If you want to move the ball on the Bills, you run it and Washington is built to do just that. Toss in the fact that there are rumors that Haskins does not even know the playbook and we have something to work with here. We just need an under friendly number.

Betting Angles – If you like the Redskins, you may be on to something because they went from +10 to +9.5 despite only taking in 48% of the wagers early in the week. That is a good indication that some respected bettors may see what you see. They may be 1-7 but they played Minnesota very tough last time out and ended up covering, albeit was a big number (17). They are built to move the ball on the ground and the Eagles showed how vulnerable the Bills are to the run last week. Buffalo has only beaten one team by more than 10 points this season (Giants) and that includes games against the Dolphins and Bengals so this is a big number for them.

If you like the Bills, you have to like the fact that there are rumors coming out of DC that Dwayne Haskins does not know the playbook. It definitely looked true in the second half against the Vikings. In a game that they trailed the entire time he played, he only threw the ball 5 times. Throw in the fact that the early forecast for this game calls for 17+ mph winds and a comeback attempt looks dismal if the Bills were to get out to a two score lead.


Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)

Line: Open – Car -4.5 O/U – 40 – Current – Car -3.5 O/U – 42

Weather – 55 degrees, 4 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Ronald Torbert (17.4 flags per game)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Ten – 2 / Car – 2
  • Rushing – Ten – 1 / Car – 3
  • Run Blocking – Ten – 2 / Car – 2
  • Pass Blocking – Ten – 1 / Car – 2
  • Run Defense – Ten – 4 / Car – 1
  • Pass Defense – Ten – 2 / Car – 4

Player Prop Considerations – The first thing I am looking for a Jonnu Smith longest reception prop if Delanie Walker is inactive. Last week it was 11.5 yards and it went over rather easily as Jonnu had a 26 yard reception in the 2nd quarter. In the other game with Ryan Tannehill, Jonnu had a 35 yard reception after Delanie Walker left the game. Only a handful of teams have given up less yards to the tight end position this season than the Panthers but they have really only seen one team that uses their tight end (49ers). I would expect this number to come in at 12-13 and if it does, I will take it there.

Betting Angles – The “wise guys” on on the Titans this week as evidenced by them going from +4.5 to +3.5 despite only taking in 31% of the early wagers. As good as the Panthers’ pass defense has been, they have been pretty slack against the run giving up close to 5 ypc. If the Titans can get Derrick Henry a 20+ yard carry day, then they could be right where they want to be in the 4th quarter of this one. They also have a stout run defense to possibly contain Christian McCaffrey as only four teams have given up less yards rushing to opposing running backs than the Titans.

If you like the Panthers, it should feel good to know that only four teams have given up less yards to opposing quarterbacks this season so Ryan Tannehill should not pose much of a threat. No team has given up more sacks this season than the Titans and only one team has more sacks than the Panthers (Patriots) so that could come into play at some point if the Panthers are able to build a lead. Also, while the Titans have been good at stopping opposing running backs running the ball, only one team has given up more receptions to running backs (Texans). Christian McCaffrey is third among running backs with 39 receptions this season.


Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)

Line: Open – KC -3.5 O/U – 54 – Current – KC -2 O/U – 48

Weather – 57 degrees, 12 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Alex Kemp (18.8 flags per game, loves PI and leads the league in roughing the passer flags)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Min – 3 / KC – 4
  • Rushing – Min – 4 / KC – 2
  • Run Blocking – Min – 4 / KC – 1
  • Pass Blocking – Min – 2 / KC – 4
  • Run Defense – Min – 3 / KC – 1
  • Pass Defense – Min – 3 / KC – 4

Player Prop Considerations – The Dalvin Cook rushing yards over prop is where I will concentrate when the lines come out. After what the Packers did to the Chiefs with running backs in the pass game, you could look for his reception prop over but it may be 5.5 or higher which would be a no go for me. Only two teams have given up more rushing yards to opposing running backs this season than the Chiefs (Dolphins, Bengals) so Dalvin is set up for a nice day. I would expect his number to be near the 90 mark which was where it was last week when we cashed it. I would most likely take anything under 100.

Betting Angles – I would suggest waiting until Patrick Mahomes status for this one is announced. If you like the Chiefs and think he will play, you can bet the game now since the line will most likely go higher if he is active. If you like the Vikings and think he will play, wait until kickoff as you will likely have a better number. The strategies are reversed if you think he will not play.


New York Jets (1-6) at Miami Dolphins (0-7)

Line: Open – NYJ -6.5 O/U – 41 – Current – NYJ -3 O/U – 42.5

Weather – 82 degrees, 13 MPH wind, slight chance of rain

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Walt Anderson (19.8 flags per game, only 4 crews have thrown more PI flags)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – NYJ – 1 / Mia – 1
  • Rushing – NYJ – 1 / Mia – 1
  • Run Blocking – NYJ – 1 / Mia – 1
  • Pass Blocking – NYJ – 1 / Mia – 1
  • Run Defense – NYJ – 4 / Mia – 1
  • Pass Defense – NYJ – 2 / Mia – 1

Player Prop Considerations – It is hard to believe but I am going to look at a Mark Walton rushing yards prop long and hard. We should get a very good number being that he has not rushed for more than 66 yards in a game this season and the Jets have only allowed one 100+ yard rusher this season (Ezekiel Elliott). It seems even crazier when you consider that of all the teams that have only played seven games, only three have given up less yards to the running back position. But with Leonard Williams gone and Jamal Adams still pouting, the Jets could be more vulnerable against the run than they have been all season. In his first game without Kenyan Drake, Walton was on the field for 87% of the team’s snaps which was by far a season high. I don’t know where this number will come out, but I can’t wait to find out.

Betting Angles – If you like the Dolphins, you are in good company because they went from +6.5 to +3 with the backing of only 38% of the early wagers. With all of the trade deadline drama the sharp guys must feel like the Jets defense is vulnerable. Or it could be the two horrific showings since knocking off the Cowboys a couple weeks ago. Whatever it is, a 3.5 point move against what might be the worst NFL team in history is something to take note of.

If you like the Jets, you are getting a 3.5 point discount on what the market makers set. It comes after the dysfunction of the organization has been exposed for all to see, but it is a discount nonetheless. As bad as Sam Darnold has looked the past couple games, a trip to Miami may be just what the doctor ordered. Only three teams in the NFL have given up more touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks than the Dolphins and no teams have intercepted opposing signal callers less than the flippers. The Dolphins have been particularly bad against wide receivers as only one team has given up more touchdown receptions to the wide receiver position (Texans).


Chicago Bears (3-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

Line: Open – Phil -3  O/U – 45 – Current – Phi -4.5 O/U – 41.5

Weather – 50 degrees, 11 MPH wind

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Craig Wrolstad (19.2 flags per game, only 2 crews have called more PI)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Chi – 2 / Phil – 2
  • Rushing – Chi – 1 / Phil – 3
  • Run Blocking – Chi – 1 / Phil – 3
  • Pass Blocking – Chi – 3 / Phil – 3
  • Run Defense – Chi – 3 / Phil – 4
  • Pass Defense – Chi – 3 / Phil – 3

Player Prop Considerations – The Allen Robinson receiving props (over) will be worth looking into this week. Only three teams have given up more yards to the wide receiver spot this season and only one team has given up more receiving touchdowns to the position. They are not far off the league lead in receptions given up as well. In last week’s game, the Bears obviously came in with the plan to run the ball but that can’t be the plan this weekend against the Eagles. Even with last week’s game plan, Robinson still saw seven targets. The longest reception prop may be in order as well since only two teams have given up more 40+ yard pass plays than the Eagles (Packers, Giants).

Betting Angles – If you like the Eagles, you are not alone because 58% of the early wagers came in on them by Wednesday Night and they went from -3 to -5. Bettors have to have liked the beatdown they put on the Bills last week. More good news for the Eagles backers is that the Bears’ strategy of running David Montgomery 25+ times is likely to not be as effective this week. Chicago goes from playing a team (Chargers) that has given up more rushing yards to opposing running backs than all but four teams in the NFL to a team that has given up less rushing yards to running backs than all but four teams.

Everybody and their brother seem to be on the under in this game which could be good news for the Bears backers. While the Eagles offense did hang 30+ points last week, it was due in large part to the ground game which is facing a much stiffer test this week. They are going from playing a team that gives up 4.4 ypc to one that give up 3.6 ypc which is a big difference. The Bears did give up big games to Josh Jacobs and Latavious Murray but everyone else has been held in check. It seems likely that the Eagles will need the ground game to get going because Carson Wentz has only thrown 5 touchdowns in the last 4 weeks and the Bears have only given up 7 touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks all season.


Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4)

Line: Open – Pick O/U – 43.5 – Current – Ind -1 O/U – 42

Weather – 42 degrees, 9 MPH wind

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Brad Allen (16.2 flags per game, only one crew has thrown more holding flags)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Ind – 3 / Pit – 2
  • Rushing – Ind – 3 / Pit – 2
  • Run Blocking – Ind – 2 / Pit – 2
  • Pass Blocking – Ind – 4 / Pit – 4
  • Run Defense – Ind – 1 / Pit – 3
  • Pass Defense – Ind – 3 / Pit – 3

Player Prop Considerations -The Mason Rudolph passing yards under prop is where I will look first when the lines become available. If it is north of 240, I will think about making a move. It took Rudolph a while to get going against the Dolphins Monday Night and his elevated yardage total was due to some long gainers that frankly, I don’t think he will get against the Colts. One example would be the 45 yards touchdown pass he threw with only seconds remaining in the first half to Diontae Johnson on 3rd and a mile. The Dolphins inexplicably called an all-out blitz leaving the middle of the field completely exposed for Johnson to run a simple slant that ended up in the end zone.

Betting Angles – If you like the Colts, you are in the majority because as of early Thursday Morning, 75% of the wagers had come in on the Colts forcing the line from a pick to Indy -1. While they have allowed four passers to have 300+ yard passing days against them (Rivers, Ryan, Mahomes, Watson), they have also kept three from reaching 200 yards (Mariota, Carr, Flacco). I think it is very easy to see which group Mason Rudolph belongs with. They are 3-0 in games decided by less than 3 points so they can have success if they are able to force a “grind it out” type of game that stays close until the end.

If you like the Steelers, you can’t like the 3-4 record but you have to like the how the losses played out considering they were playing with a backup quarterback and a third string quarterback most of the time. After getting slapped around by the undefeated Patriots, they lost by two points to the Seahawks, four points to the undefeated 49ers and three points to the division leading Ravens. Those are not bad losses by any means so there should be hope that hang with the Colts. As good as Indy has been against the pass, they are vulnerable versus the run as only ten teams give up more rushing yards per game than them.


Detroit Lions (3-3-1) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

Line: Open – Pick O/U – 51 – Current – Oak -2.5 O/U – 50.5

Weather – 70 degrees, 7 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Shawn Hochuli (18.4 flags per game, no crew has thrown more holding flags [58].)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Det – 4 / Oak – 4
  • Rushing – Det – 1 / Oak – 3
  • Run Blocking – Det – 2 / Oak – 4
  • Pass Blocking – Det – 3 / Oak – 4
  • Run Defense – Det – 2 / Oak – 3
  • Pass Defense – Det – 2 / Oak – 1

Player Prop Considerations – The one that seems most obvious to look for would be the Matthew Stafford touchdown passes over prop. In most weeks we see 1.5 as the number but in this matchup we could see a 2.5 which would be a no go for me. If it is 1.5, it is firmly in play given the Lions inability to run the ball (3.6 ypc). This total is 50+ and the Raiders have only given up three rushing touchdown to the running back position and the Lions have only rushed for two touchdowns all season. The points have to come from somewhere and only one team has given up more passing touchdowns this season than the Raiders (Cardinals) while Matthew Stafford is among the league leaders in touchdown passes with 16 through seven games.

Betting Angles – If you like the Raiders, you are on the “sharp” side as by Wednesday, only 37% of the wagers were on them but they went from a pick to -2. If you are a follow the money guy, that should be all you need to know. The move checks out because of all the teams that have only played seven games, none of them have given up more passing yards to opposing quarterbacks than the Lions. The weather forecast calls for a nice clear day so there is no reason to think the Raiders will have a problem moving the ball offensively against Detroit.

If you are on the Lions, you are now getting 2 points against a team that has given up more touchdown passes than every team in the league except for two (Cardinals, Falcons). As I said before, Matthew Stafford is among the league leaders in touchdown passes so it is safe to think he will be able to carve up the Oakland secondary like most other teams have been able to do. If this game turns into a shootout, Detroit has the weapons to fight back.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Line: Open – Sea -5.5 O/U – 53.5 – Current – Sea -5 O/U – 52.5

Weather – 52 degrees, 3 MPH wind

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – John Hussey (16 flags per game, only one crew has thrown less holding flags)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – TB – 2 / Sea – 4
  • Rushing – TB – 2 / Sea – 3
  • Run Blocking – TB – 3 / Sea – 2
  • Pass Blocking – TB – 1 / Sea – 2
  • Run Defense – TB – 4 / Sea – 2
  • Pass Defense – TB – 1 / Sea – 2

Player Prop Considerations – Here is another chance to cash in with an over 1.5 touchdown passes prop. This time the quarterback is Russell Wilson who leads the NFL in passing touchdowns this season with 17. While this is a play on Russell Wilson, the move also concerns the Buccaneers’ rush defense which has only given up three rushing touchdowns this season. If and when the Seahawks get near the goal line, they could be inclined to throw it in instead of run it because of Tampa’s stout run defense.

Betting Angles – If you like the Buccaneers, you may want to wait until close to kickoff before you lay down your cash. The line opened at 5.5 and was bet up to 6 shortly thereafter so it could go even higher by kickoff. For a team that is quarterbacked by a turnover machine, the Buccaneers seem to be very good at keeping games close. Even when they turned the ball over seven times against Carolina, they still could have gotten with 3 or 4 points with a last minute drive in the 4th quarter. I’m just saying, if they somehow don’t turn the ball over 4+ times, they could easily stay inside of 6 points.

If you like the Seahawks, you are most likely licking your chomps at the idea of playing the Buccaneers with the highest rated passer in the NFL, Russell Wilson. Of the teams that have only played seven games, only one has given up more passing yards to quarterbacks than the Bucs and only two have given up more touchdown passes. If you think it could not get better, only two teams have given up more 40+ yard pass plays than Tampa (Chiefs, Packers) so the big play is on the table too.


Cleveland Browns (2-5) at Denver Broncos (2-6)

Line: Open – Den -1 O/U – 43 – Current – Cle -3.5 O/U – 39

Weather – 50 degrees, 6 MPH wind

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Bill Vinovich (12.4 flags per game, no crew has thrown less holding flags.)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Cle – 1 / Den – 1
  • Rushing – Cle – 4 / Den – 2
  • Run Blocking – Cle – 3 / Den – 4
  • Pass Blocking – Cle – 1 / Den – 1
  • Run Defense – Cle – 2 / Den – 3
  • Pass Defense – Cle – 2 / Den – 4

Player Prop Considerations – The first prop I will look for is the Baker Mayfield yards passing under as the Broncos as only three teams have allowed less passing yards to the quarterback position than the Broncos. This one is not totally a play against Baker, even though he has been dreadful all season, as much as it is a play on the situation. Brandon Allen will get his first action ever in the NFL so I am guessing the Broncos will not play as fast as they have been (11th fastest pace) which should cut down on both teams’ number of possessions. The last thing the Browns should want to do is let Mayfield throw the ball given that he has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns this season and has a QBR that ranks with the recently benched Andy Dalton.

Betting Angles – If you like the Browns, you have to like the fact that you are only laying a field goal against a team starting a guy who has never taken an NFL snap. It is hard to imagine that this is the same team that was the trendy pick to make a Super Bowl appearance but here we are. Despite how bad Baker Mayfield has been, one bright spot has been Nick Chubb. Had it not been for two fumbles in the rain last Sunday, the Browns would have made things much more interesting last week against the Patriots. As long as Mayfield does not turn in one of his typical interception filled afternoons, the Browns have an advantage on the offensive side of the ball since only 11 teams have given up more yards rushing to running backs than the Broncos. That is a pretty big ask though.

If you like the Broncos, you have to love the fact that of the teams that have only played seven games, only one has given up more rushing yards to running backs than the Cleveland Browns (Dolphins). The Royce Freeman/Phillip Lindsay train could benefit from the Bill Vinovich crew that almost never calls a holding penalty so there is that too. If you like the Broncos, you should almost certainly wait until kickoff to make your bet because there should be action on the Browns that could push this number higher.


Green Bay Packers (7-1) at LA Chargers (3-5)

Line: Open – GB -4 O/U – 46 – Current – GB -3.5 O/U – 48.5

Weather – 78 degrees, 2 MPH wind

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Adrian Hill (17.2 flags per game)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – GB – 4 / LA – 3
  • Rushing – GB – 4 / LA – 1
  • Run Blocking – GB – 3 / LA – 1
  • Pass Blocking – GB – 3 / LA – 3
  • Run Defense – GB – 2 / LA – 2
  • Pass Defense – GB – 4 / LA – 1

Player Prop Considerations – My favorite prop to look for against the Green Bay Packers is a wide receiver’s longest reception prop and this week that guy will be Mike Williams. In his last six games, the former top 10 pick has had a 20+ yard reception in each of his last six games and I would expect new play caller, Shane Steichen, to be more aggressive than Ken Whisenhunt who was fired this week. No team in the NFL has given up more 40+ yard completions this season than the Packers and the Chargers should be in a point needing position all day.

Betting Angles – If you like the Chargers, that is where the “smart” money is in this game. They went from +4 to +3 behind only 12% of the early wagers at Pinnacle which is known as a “sharp” book. Only five teams have given up more yards rushing to the running back position than the Packers this season so the Chargers should be able to move the ball. If the Chargers face a negative game script, they should be fine as well since only five teams have given up more yards passing to the quarterback position than Green Bay.

If you like the Packers, getting them at a key number (3) should feel pretty good. Only four teams have given up more rushing yards to running backs than the Chargers this season and the Packers have two good ones with Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones. The Chargers numbers have been good against opposing quarterbacks but when you look closer at who they have played, you get a good reason as to why. In their last five games, they have faced off against, Josh Rosen, Joe Flacco, Devlin Hodges, Ryan Tannehill and Mitch Trubisky. Aaron Rodgers will definitely look different to the Bolts especially if he gets Davante Adams back this week.


New England Patriots (8-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

Line: Open – NE -6.5 O/U – 46.5 – Current – NE -3 O/U – 44.5

Weather – 51 degrees, 10 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Carl Cheffers (17.5 flags per game, only two crews have thrown more holding flags)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – NE – 3 / Bal – 2
  • Rushing – NE – 2 / Bal – 4
  • Run Blocking – NE – 2 / Bal – 4
  • Pass Blocking – NE – 3 / Bal – 2
  • Run Defense – NE – 4 / Bal – 2
  • Pass Defense – NE – 4 / Bal – 3

Player Prop Considerations – Only three teams have given up less rushing yards to running backs than the Patriots but I still want to see where the Mark Ingram rushing yards number is set. Against similar skilled run blocking lines (Bills, Browns), the Patriots allowed a single back to go over the century mark. Ingram’s lack of volume is concerning but if the number was in the 40’s, it may be worth a bet.

Betting Angles – If you like the Ravens, take comfort in the fact that this line went from the Ravens getting 6.5 to them only getting 3.5 which is obviously a substantial move. What is interesting is, only 30% of the early wagers were on Baltimore so this is “smart” money that moved this one. As good as the Patriots have been on defense, it is smart to question the ability of their opponents as to why they have been so successful. Here is a list of quarterbacks they have faced: Josh Rosen, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Luke Falk, Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Colt McCoy, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. The best one of that bunch in terms of QBR is Daniel Jones with a dismal 53.2. Lamar Jackson has been head and shoulders above this group and he has a rushing attack that could give the Pats problems as they just gave up a 130+ yard day to Nick Chubb last week.

If you like the Patriots, wait until kickoff and maybe you get -3 instead of -3.5. It is a far cry from the 6.5 that the market makers set so there is that. Only six teams have given up more receiving yards to the wide receiver position than the Ravens this season so the Patriots should be able to move the ball on offense even though they have looked a bit shaky in the last couple weeks. The Ravens are also allowing 4.3 ypc to opposing running backs so the ground game is on the table too if the Patriots choose it.

 


Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at New York Giants (2-6)

Line: Open – Dal -9  O/U – 47 – Current – Dal -7 O/U – 48

Weather – 49 degrees, 7 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Clay Martin (15.8 flags per game, only two crews have thrown less holding flags, no crew has thrown more PI flags)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Dal – 4 / NYG – 1
  • Rushing – Dal – 4 / NYG – 3
  • Run Blocking – Dal – 4 / NYG – 3
  • Pass Blocking – Dal – 4 / NYG – 2
  • Run Defense – Dal – 2 / NYG – 3
  • Pass Defense – Dal – 2 / NYG – 1

Player Prop Considerations – I want to see Amari Cooper’s longest reception number before all else. No team has given up more 40+ yard completions than the Giants (9) this season and we should get a number in the low 20’s for Cooper. Amari had a 45 yard reception in the first meeting and I still don’t think the Giants can handle him this time around. With the better play of Daniel Jones of late, the Giants could actually keep this close and even contend which would keep our window for a long completion open for longer.

Betting Angles – If you are on the Giants, you are pretty sharp because the line went from +9 to +7 even though the Cowboys took in 71% of the early bets. Yikes. It could be people buying Daniel Jones’ 300+ 4 touchdown performance last week against the Lions in which he looked like a legitimate NFL starter. The Giants did acquire DT Leonard Williams early in the week so there is optimism that the run defense can be better than it has been this season.

If you like the Cowboys, you are getting a discount on the original price against a team that has given up more passing yards to opposing quarterbacks than all but three teams in the NFL. Only one team has given up more 20+ yard pass completions so the big play should always be in play in this one. I mentioned the acquisition of Leonard Williams and while that should help, only six teams in the NFL have given up more rushing yards to enemy backs than the Giants. He will need to be as good as they think he is to right that ship.

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