Tom Brady to the Buccaneers
I am sure you have heard already that Tom Brady has agreed in principle to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers next season. I am a Patriots fan and I have to say, today sucks. It’s bad. Not only are we stuck in our houses because of a Pandemic, but now we just have to imagine Tom Brady playing for another team. Here is the thing, I think Brady is washed and I think the Patriots made the right move but that’s what is going to make this whole thing suck even worse.
Why do I think Brady is washed? Because he is. The best example was the Eagles game last year if you are looking for video evidence but there are plenty of examples just in the statistics if you don’t want to watch that game again. His clean pocket completion percentage (my favorite accuracy stat) was 68.4% which was good for 32nd in the NFL among quarterbacks. That’s bad, especially considering the fact that his ADOT (average depth of target) was only 7.6 yards. That is very un-Bradylike, but there is more.
Only two quarterbacks in the NFL averaged less yards per pass thrown than Brady’s 6.6 (Mason Rudolph & Mitch Trubisky) which is another indictment against him. As bad as that is, if I had to pick one thing to harp on him about, it would be his QBR. That is a great metric to accurately put a number on what you are watching more so than the other statistics available as it incorporates supporting cast. He went from fourth best in the NFL in 2017 to sixth best in 2018 all the way down to 16th best last season. Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins were better than he was in that metric which is telling and he barley beat Jameis Winston and Daniel Jones which may be even more telling.
So this should be good for Patriots’ fans then right? Not so fast. This is so Peyton Manning all over again it’s not even funny. I don’t remember an all time great falling off of a cliff more than Peyton did in 2015. He went from 4th in the NFL in QBR in 2014 all the way to 31st in 2015. He was so bad and it was noticeable to everyone. They started 7-0 but five of those wins were one score games and it was clear that something was wrong with him. He got pulled after his 4th pick of the game in Week 10 of that year in favor of Brock Osweiler if that tells you anything. Guess what though, it didn’t matter. The Broncos won the Super Bowl that season on the backs of their number one ranked defense (DVOA). We got to listen to how great Manning was even though he was horrific.
Guess who had the 5th best defense (DVOA) and 3rd best weighted defense (DVOA) last season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This sucks. You could argue if Jameis didn’t throw 30 interceptions last season, that team could have made the playoffs. Brady could not have landed in a better spot if he tried.
Which leads me to the point of this article. I think we just got stuck in a worst case scenario which will be excruciating to watch play out. On one hand the Patriots were right to move on from Brady because he is clearly washed, but we still may have to sit through a season of watching him winning games because of elite talent to bail him out on offense as well as a good defense that will keep him in games. We’re going to listen to people say “he’s still got it” even though he is a complete shell of himself. It’s going to suck. Today was only the beginning.