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Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

New York Giants (2-5) at Detroit Lions (2-3-1)

Line: Open – Det -7.5 O/U – 48.5 – Current – Det -6.5 O/U – 49.5

Weather – Dome

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Scott Novak (15.1 flags per game)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Det – 4 / NYG – 1
  • Rushing – Det – 1 / NYG – 4
  • Run Blocking – Det – 3 / NYG – 3
  • Pass Blocking – Det – 4 / NYG – 2
  • Run Defense – Det – 2 / NYG – 3
  • Pass Defense – Det – 3 / NYG – 1

Player Prop Considerations – Matt Stafford 35+ yard completion is one I will look for. It should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 35 and it is a safe bet considering the Giants have given up seven 40+ yard completions this season. The Lions have only completed four such passes but three of them have been in the last two weeks. With any luck, the Giants can keep this one close which will keep our long completion window open for the whole game.

Betting Angles – The Lions traded Quandre Diggs this week in a surprise move so maybe there is something there in the way of narrative if you are looking to back the Giants. Only seven teams have given up more yards to opposing running backs than the Lions (Saquon Barkley plays for the Giants) despite them only playing six games so far so there is that too. If you are looking to back the Lions, you will like that only four teams have given up more passing yards to opposing quarterbacks than the G-men. The wide receiver position gives them fits (92 receptions, 1323 yards and 8 touchdowns to opposing receivers) so Detroit is set up to do some damage offensively. A play on their team total over may be in order.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)

Line: Open – Tenn -2.5 O/U – 47 – Current – Tenn -2.5 O/U – 45.5

Weather – 66-69 degrees, 4 MPH wind

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Adrian Hill (17.3 flags per game)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – TB – 3 / Tenn – 2
  • Rushing – TB – 2 / Tenn – 2
  • Run Blocking – TB – 3 / Tenn – 2
  • Pass Blocking – TB – 1 / Tenn – 1
  • Run Defense – TB – 4 / Tenn – 4
  • Pass Defense – TB – 1 / Tenn – 2

Player Prop Considerations – Will Jameis throw an INT? Just kidding, that prop will be -350. I will be looking to see where the Derrick Henry rushing yards prop comes out because an under play might be in order. I would say anything higher than 73 would make me bet the under. Nobody in the league has given up less rushing yards to opposing running backs than the Bucs and if they can make the Titans play from behind, it could further limit Henry’s output. Another one I will look at is total sacks (both teams) as both are among the league leaders in sacks allowed.

Betting Angles – If you are backing the Bucs you will like to know that they turned the ball over seven times against the Panthers and still scored 26 points. Jameis is definitely a backup quarterback at best but let’s say he only throws two interceptions, then they could probably drop a 30 burger. The Titans have not given up more than 20 points to anyone this season but you have to wonder if that is because of the offenses they have faced (LA, Denver, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Cleveland). If you like the Titans you will be pleased to know that of all the teams that have only played six games, none have given up more yards passing to the quarterback position than the Buccaneers. Tannehill went over 300 yards passing last week versus the Chargers and used the wide receivers in doing so. Of all the teams that have only played six games, none have given up more receiving yards to wide receiver position.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

LA Chargers (2-5) at Chicago Bears (3-3)

Line: Open – Chi -6 O/U – 40.5 – Current – Chi -3.5 O/U – 41

Weather – 55-57 degrees, 9 MPH wind

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Brad Rogers (19 flags per game, crew likes holding, PI and roughing the passer calls. Big yard hunters)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – LAC – 3 / Chi – 2
  • Rushing – LAC – 1 / Chi – 1
  • Run Blocking – LAC – 2 / Chi – 1
  • Pass Blocking – LAC – 3 / Chi – 2
  • Run Defense – LAC – 2 / Chi – 3
  • Pass Defense – LAC – 1 / Chi – 4

Player Prop Considerations – Obviously anytime Mitch Trubisky takes the field you want to look at his passing yards under. Of all the teams that have played seven games, only one has given up less passing yards to opposition quarterbacks. They have only given up two 40+ yard pass plays on the season so Mitch should have to sustain a drive by passing the ball. The fact that only six teams have given up more rushing yards to running backs than the Chargers helps with this play. The Bears have been awful running the ball this season (3.4 ypc) but this could be a “get right” spot since they have played some borderline tough run defenses lately (Raiders, Vikings, Saints).

Betting Angles – If you like the Chargers, you are in good company because as of right now, 63% of the early wagers are on them. Take that for what it is worth but some believe that the early money is “sharp”. The fact that the line moved from +6 to +4 lends some credence to that theory. If you like the Bears at the two point discount, you have to be happy that the Chargers don’t run the ball well so it will be up to Phillip Rivers to put the ball in the end zone through the air. Only three teams have given up less passing touchdowns than the Bears this season.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-6)

Line: Open – Sea -3 O/U – 54 – Current – Sea -7 O/U – 53

Weather – Dome

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Clete Blakeman (14.3 flags per game, crew let’s them play)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Sea – 4 / Atl – 2
  • Rushing – Sea – 2 / Atl – 1
  • Run Blocking – Sea – 1 / Atl – 1
  • Pass Blocking – Sea – 3 / Atl – 3
  • Run Defense – Sea – 2 / Atl – 4
  • Pass Defense – Sea – 3 / Atl – 1

Player Prop Considerations – All signs point to a DK Metcalf longest reception over bet but it will obviously depend on the number we get. He has played seven games this season and in six of them he has had a catch that went for at least 28 yards. My guess is his number will be in the low 20’s making this pretty attractive given that the Falcons have allowed 28 receptions to go for 20+ yards this season. Only two teams have given up more (Raiders, Giants).

Betting Angles – It looks like Matt Schaub will start for the injured Matt Ryan even though the Falcons keep saying Ryan still could play. I don’t believe them but he might. If Ryan does not play, this line will swell from -3 to a touchdown or more. If you like the Falcons, you could always use the Ewing Theory as a basis for your pick. The Seahawks also barely beat the Steelers with their backup quarterback so there is that too. If you like the Seahawks, you can always point to the Falcons’ pass defense for confidence. No team has given up more touchdown passes to quarterbacks this season and only one team (Eagles) have given up more receiving yards to the wide receiver position than the dirty birds.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

New York Jets (1-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)

Line: Open – Jax -4.5 O/U – 41 – Current – Jax -6 O/U – 40.5

Weather – 82-84 degrees, scattered thunderstorms, 8-10 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Brad Allen (15.8 flags per game, crew loves calling holding [48])

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – NYJ – 1 / Jax – 3
  • Rushing – NYJ – 1 / Jax – 2
  • Run Blocking – NYJ – 1 / Jax – 3
  • Pass Blocking – NYJ – 1 / Jax – 3
  • Run Defense – NYJ – 4 / Jax – 1
  • Pass Defense – NYJ – 2 / Jax – 3

Player Prop Considerations – Leonard Fournette to score a rushing touchdown is the front runner for this game for me. If I get anywhere from +110 up, I am snagging it. Fournette has only scored one rushing touchdown this season but that should change this week. No team in the NFL has given up more rushing touchdowns than the Jets and keep in mind that they have only played six games. They don’t give up a lot of rushing yards but for whatever reason, they can’t stop teams near the goal line.

Betting Angles – If you like the Jets, you have to be happy that there is no way Sam Darnold could play any worse than he did Monday Night against the Patriots. The good news is, the Jags are not the Patriots so Sam Darnold could get back to looking like Goat Darnold as soon as this week. Only eight teams have given up more passing yards to the quarterback position than the Jaguars. Keep in mind they have played, Joe Flacco, Marcus Mariota and Andy Dalton and two of those guys went for 300 yards against them (Flacco & Mariota). They have had trouble covering receivers as only five teams have given up more yards to the wide receiver position this season.

If you like the Jaguars, you are on the “sharp” side since only 48% of the early bets have been on the Jags but they have gone from -4.5 to -7 at some shops. The Jets could not have inspired a lot of confidence with their play on Monday Night. The only question now is, how much is too much to lay against them?


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1)

Line: Open – Pick  O/U – 41.5 – Current – Buf -1.5 O/U – 43.5

Weather – 60 degrees, light rain, 20 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – John Hussey (16.3 flags per game, crew leads NFL in unsportsmanlike conduct calls [3])

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Phil – 2 / Buf – 1
  • Rushing – Phil – 3 / Buf – 4
  • Run Blocking – Phil – 2 / Buf – 4
  • Pass Blocking – Phil – 3 / Buf – 1
  • Run Defense – Phil – 3 / Buf – 2
  • Pass Defense – Phil – 2 / Buf – 4

Player Prop Considerations – There is rain and wind in the forecast in Buffalo on Sunday which should limit the passing and kicking games for both teams. My favorite thing to do in a situation like this is take the longest field goal under prop. Generally it will still be the same as if it were nice out so any number higher than 45 would be an under play from me. Stephen Hauschka’s longest on the season is 46 and Jake Elliott’s is 53 but that was inside. A bonus is the Eagles and Bills have only attempted 17 field goals combined this season and no team has attempted to go for it on 4th down than the Eagles this season (14).

Betting Angles – If you like the Eagles, you can find comfort in the fact that this is the third worst offense they have seen this season. Week one, they gave up 27 to the Redskins in a win and three weeks ago they held the Jets to 6 points in that win. Both of those games were at home, but they did beat the Packers on the road. If you like the Bills, you will be happy to know they went from a pick to -1.5 while only taking in a small majority of the early bets. This is normally and indication of “smart” money. No team in the NFL has given up more yards receiving to the wide receiver position than the Eagles so that could play a role if the weather cooperates.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Cincinnati Bengals (0-7) at LA Rams (4-3) – London

Line: Open – LAR -9.5 O/U – 47.5 – Current – LAR -13 O/U – 48

Weather – 43 degrees, 4 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Jerome Boger (14.1 flags per game, crew lets a lot of stuff slide)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Cin – 2 / LAR – 3
  • Rushing – Cin – 1/ LAR – 3
  • Run Blocking – Cin – 1 / LAR – 3
  • Pass Blocking – Cin – 2 / LAR – 4
  • Run Defense – Cin – 1 / LAR – 4
  • Pass Defense – Cin – 1 / LAR – 3

Player Prop Considerations – I am most interested in a Todd Gurley rushing yards over or a to score a rushing touchdown (yes) prop. Last week with Malcolm Brown sidelined Gurley got 18 carries and this game figures to have the same game script. The major difference is, instead of the Falcons, Gurley and the Rams will be facing the Bengals who have given up more yards to opposing running backs than any team in the NFL. Only one team (Jets) have given up more rushing touchdowns to the running back position.

Betting Angles – If you like the Bengals, you can rest easy knowing that 13 is a big number to cover in the NFL. The Rams have only won twice by at lest 13 points this season and the books originally set this number at 9. It has been moved all the way up to 13 after the Rams took in 77% of the early wagers. You know what they say when “everyone” is on one side? This definitely qualifies.

If you like the Rams you can point to Bengals run defense as why. As mentioned before, they have given up more yards than any team in the NFL. The Rams should be able to control the clock and ball if they get a lead which is big for covering such a big number.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Arizona Cardinals (3-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)

Line: Open – NO -7.5 O/U – 47.5 – Current – NO -10 O/U – 48

Weather – Dome

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Clay Martin (17.3 flags per game, crew leads NFL with 18 PI calls this year, likes roughing the passer too [7])

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Ari – 2 / NO – 4
  • Rushing – Ari – 4 / NO – 3
  • Run Blocking – Ari – 3 / NO – 4
  • Pass Blocking – Ari – 1 / NO – 3
  • Run Defense – Ari – 1 / NO – 3
  • Pass Defense – Ari – 1 / NO – 3

Player Prop Considerations – The one prop I will look for first in this one is the Josh Hill receptions number. If we get one, I think it will be 1.5 – 2.5 and I think he clears it. This one is predicated on Jared Cook NOT playing this week so I will make that clarification. It is well documented that no team that has only played seven games has given up more receptions to the tight end position than the Cardinals and with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to worry about, that trend should continue this week. It is worth noting that no team has given up more receiving yards to tight ends so a yardage prop over is on the radar too depending on the number.

Betting Angles – If you like the Saints, you should be happy to know that this line swelled from -7.5 to -10 with a basic split in tickets. (That’s a good thing.) After starting slow, Teddy Bridgewater looks like an NFL starter so he should take advantage of a Cardinals defense that has made opposing quarterbacks look good all year. Only three teams have given up more yards passing to opposing signal callers and no team has given up more touchdown passes.

If you like the Cardinals, you can point to the fact that they have won three straight games and two of them have been on the road. Those wins did come against some of the bottom seeded NFL teams (Bengals, Falcons, Giants) but wins are wins in the NFL. They have given up four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (most in the NFL) and only five teams have given up more receptions to running backs this season. That is good news for the Cardinals since only six teams have targeted their running backs more in the pass game this season.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Denver Broncos (2-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)

Line: Open – Ind -4.5 O/U – 43.5 – Current – Ind -5.5 O/U – 43

Weather – Dome

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Walt Anderson (19.3 flags a game)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Den – 1 / Ind – 3
  • Rushing – Den – 3 / Ind – 3
  • Run Blocking – Den – 4 / Ind – 2
  • Pass Blocking – Den – 1 / Ind – 4
  • Run Defense – Den – 3 / Ind – 1
  • Pass Defense – Den – 4 / Ind – 2

Player Prop Considerations – After watching last week’s game, you have to be interested in the Colt’s sack total when the number comes out. It’s not crazy to think they can get 3+ against this Broncos offensive line. You could also look at the Joe Flacco and Jacoby Brissett passing yard totals and take the under in both if the number is right. Only three teams have given up less passing yards to opposing quarterbacks than the Broncos this season and two of those teams have played one less game than the Broncos.

Betting Angles – If you like the Broncos to cover, you have to be happy that the Colts only have one 40+ yard pass play this season. As bad as last week’s final score against Kansas City looked, if you take away an awful fumble by Flacco and a 57 yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill, the game is a 16-6 type slugfest. (I am aware that you can’t “take things away”, just trying to put this into perspective.) The one thing you can’t take away is the fact that Flacco is just not good at this stage of his career but he may not need to be if the Broncos can keep the Colts off the scoreboard and run the ball effectively. The Colts give up 4.5 yards a carry so there is that.

If you like the Colts to smash here, you will be happy to know that only three teams have given up more sacks (24) than the Broncos. Joe Flacco is a statue in the pocket so any pressure will do. Last year when the Broncos featured Courtland Sutton and Daesean Hamilton as their top two receivers (final four games), teams for the most part, single covered them and stacked the box against the run. They went 0-4 in those games and never scored more than 16 points.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Carolina Panters (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-0)

Line: Open – SF -6 O/U – 41.5 – Current – SF -5.5 O/U – 42

Weather – 65-70 degrees, 20-23 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Shawn Smith (13.8 flags per game, crew let’s them play but will call roughing the passer [6])

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Car – 2 / SF – 2
  • Rushing – Car – 3 / SF – 3
  • Run Blocking – Car – 2 / SF – 4
  • Pass Blocking – Car – 2 / SF – 4
  • Run Defense – Car – 1 / SF – 3
  • Pass Defense – Car – 4 / SF – 4

Player Prop Considerations – Kyle Allen passing yards under is what I am going to look for first. Besides being extremely windy which should affect kicks, (hint, hint) no team in the NFL has given up less passing yards to opposing quarterbacks than the 49ers. Besides that, only two teams have less 20+ yard completions this season than Carolina so chunk plays should be few and far between. This bet depends on where the number comes out.

Betting Angles – If you like Carolina, you have to like the way Jimmy G looked last week in Washington. Granted that game was played in horrific weather, the 49ers could not move the ball on the lowly Redskins. As high as I am on the Niners’ defense, it is important to remember that only five teams have given up less passing yards to quarterbacks this season than the Panthers. The books have already adjusted the line from 6 to 5.5 and it could go even lower before kickoff.

If you are on the 49ers, you have to like the fact that the Panthers rely so heavily on Christian McCaffrey. The Niners are one of only two teams (Patriots) that have not given up a rushing touchdown to a running back this season and just from the eyeball test, they look to have the best red zone rushing defense going. They have only given up two passing touchdowns in the red zone this season as well so the Panthers may have a hard time scoring unless they can break a long one.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Oakland Raiders (3-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)

Line: Open – Hou -6.5 O/U – 48 – Current – Hou -7 O/U – 51.5

Weather – 72-75 degrees, 4 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Craig Wrolstad (19.6 flags per game, crew loves calling PI [15])

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Oak – 4 / Hou – 3
  • Rushing – Oak – 3 / Hou – 3
  • Run Blocking – Oak – 4 / Hou – 3
  • Pass Blocking – Oak – 4 / Hou – 2
  • Run Defense – Oak – 3 / Hou – 4
  • Pass Defense – Oak – 1 / Hou – 2

Player Prop Considerations – Seems obvious but you want to look at Derek Carr’s passing props, mainly the yards and td passes (over). I will most likely look at the touchdown passes over prop first since the Texans are very good against the run in the red zone but not so good against the pass. So far this season, the Texans have given up 13 touchdown passes in the red zone and only two rushing touchdown in that portion of the field. When you consider that the Raiders should get Tyrell Williams back this week and most likely will be without the service of Josh Jacobs, this bet makes even more sense.

Betting Angles – As I mentioned, the Raiders should have success through the air on Sunday largely due to the fact that the Texans pass defense is pretty bad. If you like the Raiders, you will be happy to know that they should be able to move the ball through the air as no team in the NFL has given up more passing yards to quarterbacks than the Texans. Only four teams have given up more touchdown passes.

If you like the Texans, rest easy knowing that only two teams (Cardinals, Falcons) have given up more touchdowns through the air to opponent quarterbacks than the Raiders and both have played one more game. Even without Will Fuller, the Texans can still exploit a weak secondary with the receivers they have. Only one team has given up more receiving touchdowns to the tight end position this season than the Raiders so there is that too.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Cleveland Browns (2-4) at New England Patriots (7-0)

Line: Open – NE -11.5 O/U – 46.5 – Current – NE -12.5 O/U – 45.5

Weather – 60-65 degrees, rain, 12 MPH wind

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Tony Corrente (17.5 flags per game, crew loves to call holding [45])

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Cle – 1 / NE – 3
  • Rushing – Cle – 4 / NE – 2
  • Run Blocking – Cle – 2 / NE – 2
  • Pass Blocking – Cle – 1 / NE – 3
  • Run Defense – Cle – 1 / NE – 4
  • Pass Defense – Cle – 2 / NE – 4

Player Prop Considerations – I don’t like to get cute with these but a Tom Brady passing yards under prop could be in order if the total is higher than 300. One thing the Browns do well is not allow passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. I will concede that they have not really seen any “great” passers other than Russell Wilson, but still. If the weather report is right, this game should see heavy rain so if the Patriots have success moving the ball on the ground early, they might just stay with it. Of the teams that have only played six games, only one has given up more rushing yards to opposing running backs (Dolphins) so it is a safe bet that the Patriots will be able to move the ball on the ground.

Betting Angles – If you like the Browns, you will be happy to know that one area that the Patriots have struggled is scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Although the Browns are not good defending in the red zone no matter what metric you look at, every team they have played is better than the Patriots at scoring touchdowns in the red zone with the exception of the 49ers. If they hold the Patriots to field goals attempts, it will go a long way in covering a large spread.

If you like the Patriots, you have to like the fact that they have only given up three offensive touchdowns all season. It is a pretty simple concept to understand, if a team can’t score, it’s hard for them to cover. The Patriot defense is getting lumped in with the ’85 Bears and ’00 Ravens so while I am not ready to do that myself, it is hard to ignore how dominant they have been. Keep in mind, neither of those historical teams had the best quarterback of all time playing for them.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

Line: Open – KC -4  O/U – 48 – Current – GB -3.5 O/U – 48

Weather – 50 degrees, 3 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Bill Vinovich (13.5 flags per game, only 19 holding calls this season and 0 roughing the passer)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – GB – 4 / KC – 4
  • Rushing – GB – 4/ KC – 2
  • Run Blocking – GB – 3 / KC – 1
  • Pass Blocking – GB – 3 / KC – 4
  • Run Defense – GB – 2 / KC – 1
  • Pass Defense – GB – 4 / KC – 4

Player Prop Considerations – Assuming Patrick Mahomes does not suit up, I will take a look at the Matt Moore longest completion (over) prop. I would expect it to be a low 30+ number and if it is, I will take it. Despite the articles about their defense being good, no team in the NFL has given up more 40+ yard completions than the Green Bay Packers. Let’s not forget that Tyreek Hill still plays for the Chiefs and they should be chasing points. After Mahomes went out last Thursday against the Broncos, Hill caught a 57 yard touchdown pass so this is not remotely crazy.

Betting Angles – Obviously if you like the Packers you must be licking your chops at the potential for Patrick Mahomes to miss this game. Outside of a long touchdown pass, the Chiefs did not look like the Chiefs on offense after Mahomes went out. After the offensive output last week against the Raiders, only laying 3.5 points in this one has to feel good especially considering that fact that only two teams have given up more rushing yards to opposing running backs than the Chiefs. Aaron Rodgers with a strong running game is a fun -3.5 bet.

If you like the Chiefs, you have to like the fact that of the teams that have not played more than seven games, only seven have given up more passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Only five teams have given up more yards rushing to opposing running backs so if Aaron Rodgers turns is another “Aaron Rodgers” game, the Chiefs should still be able to hang around. Keep in mind that the Packers’ game last week against the Raiders was a “fake” blowout as it was much closer than the score indicated.


Week-8 NFL Betting Notes

Miami Dolphins (0-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)

Line: Open – Pitt -16.5 O/U – 42.5 – Current – Pitt -14 O/U – 43

Weather – 55 degrees, 4 MPH winds

Injury Report can be seen by clicking here

Referee Crew – Ron Torbert (17.5 flags per game, only 4 PI calls this season)

Power Ranks [4 = Top 8 NFL (very good) , 3 = 9-16 NFL (decent) , 2 = 17-24 NFL (not good), 1 = 25-32 NFL (awful)]

  • Passing – Mia – 1 / Pitt – 2
  • Rushing – Mia – 1 / Pitt – 2
  • Run Blocking – Mia – 1 / Pitt – 1
  • Pass Blocking – Mia – 1 / Pitt – 4
  • Run Defense – Mia – 1 / Pitt – 3
  • Pass Defense – Mia – 1 / Pitt – 3

Player Prop Considerations – If James Conner plays, I will look at his rushing yardage (over) prop. The Steelers look like they will get fullback Roosevelt Nix back from injury this week which should improve their running game and they are taking on the winless Miami Dolphins which both factor into this greatly. Of the teams that have only played six games, none have given up more rushing yards to running backs than the Miami Dolphins. If I was in charge of the Steelers (I’m not), I would continue to run the ball and play defense considering I have a good defense, backup quarterback and a weak opponent. It would not surprise me to see Conner go for 100+ rushing yards. If you want, you could look for a to score a rushing touchdown prop on Conner as well.

Betting Angles – If you like the Dolphins, you must have noticed how different they looked with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback last week against the Bills and you are not alone because 78% of the early wagers came in on the Dolphins taking them from +16.5 to +14. There is a decent reason because they did have a lead at halftime as 17 point dogs and would have kept it to a three point loss had it not been for an onside kick return for a touchdown by Micah Hyde. We saw Fitzmagic light up the Steelers last season in prime time so he has seen them before although he had much more help with Tampa’s offense.

If you like the Steelers, you have almost a 3 point discount of what the market makers set, at home and off of a bye against a team that has not won a game this season. Mike Tomlin is 8-4 as the Steelers’ head coach after the bye week so there is that too. One thing that helps teams cover 14 point spreads is the ability to score touchdowns in the red zone. You can point to many areas of ineptitude for the Dolphins, but the fact that they have allowed their opponents to score a touchdown in 70% of their red zone trips is pretty bad. That is one area where the Steelers have struggled this season as they have only scored a touchdown in 40% of their red zone trips. A game against the Dolphins should help improve that number.

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