BetsJohn HyslopNFL

Week 9 NFL Bet (11-4-20)

Week 9 NFL Bet (10-4-20)

Week 9 NFL Bet (11-4-20)

It’s so important to lock something down early in the week. I can’t stress that enough. Nothing gets the blood going like a little skin in the game. For an added kick, I like to take something for just a touch more than I can afford to lose, but it’s not necessary. It’s not for everyone, you have to crawl before you walk and I completely understand that. I’ve been doing this a long time so I know when I see a bet that has a zero percent chance of losing, which doesn’t happen often, I have to hammer it. That’s what I did with this one for Sunday.

(Don’t forget to check out this week’s podcast where we go over EVERY NFL game on the slate for this week. It will drop tonight so just subscribe and wait.)

2 Team – 6 Point Tease

  • Broncos/Falcons Over 44
  • Raiders/Chargers Over 47

The first one is obvious to anyone who has ever watched a football game before. If I could have two things in an NFL over bet, I would choose fast pace and time for the QB to throw. If you give me those two things, I would win 100% of the over bets I make in the 40’s. It’s science.

So far this season, both the Falcons and the Broncos are in the top eleven in the NFL in seconds per play which is a nice start but it’s not the end all be all. The pace stat that sticks out the most is the +/-6 pace where both are in the fastest seven teams in the NFL. Basically, if this one is within a TD (the line in 4), then we will see a track meet. It’s also nice to know both teams are in the top 10 in second half pace too so there is that.

Pace is cool but we need some execution as well which it looks like we will get because both QBs should have all day to throw. The Falcons give up pressure on only 24% of drop backs (that’s good) and only four defenses in the NFL pressure the QB at a lower rate than the Broncos. On the flip side, the Falcons aren’t world beaters at generating pressure on the QB as only nine teams in the NFL do so at a lower rate. The Broncos have been decent at not allowing pressure on Drew Lock (26% pressure rate) so we should be good there too.

To sum it up, we have two teams that will push pace and can protect their QBs. Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones should throttle Michael Ojemudia and AJ Bouye and an early lead for the Falcons would be best case scenario. All we need is Atlanta to hang a 30 burger on these guys and we are home free. No chance this loses.

What’s better than one over? Two overs! This is yet another example of the “sharp” guys being in way over their heads. It’s a tough look to be honest. They set this line at 56 and it was promptly ┬ábet down to 53 with about 59% of the early bets being on the Over. That’s a great sign that the “sharp” guys like the under but for us teaser guys, it means we get an almost double digit discount. It’s tough to pass up a deal.

The Chargers run one of the fastest offenses in the NFL in neutral situations (#4 overall) and only one team in the NFL have sacked the QB less than the Raiders this season (Jaguars). Simply put, Justin Herbert is going to go ham. The thing is, the Raiders should be able to keep pace against this defense that has given up 29+ in four straight games. One of those games was against the Jaguars too so that counts for more. This is definitely a 30 something to 30 something game so obviously it will go over 47. Math.

Do you know what else I like tonight? Free cash, and Betonline is giving it away in the form of promotions. From 50% first time deposit bonuses, to 100% 1st time crypto bonuses. They have something for everyone and that includes player props that no other book comes close to matching. I’m not going to steer you wrong and you know that. I’ve been with Betonline for over a decade and that won’t change anytime soon. Click that link right there and go see what Betonline has to offer.

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Week 9 NFL Bet (11-4-20)

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